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Prediction: Without an enemy like the U.S. to fight, the Taliban will collapse from within...

Arnox

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That or the general populace will get pissed off enough and refuse to support them in overwhelming numbers or even actively fight them. A union built on hate is a tenuous one at best, and sooner or later, all that aggression with nowhere to go now will backfire on them either way. As to when this will happen, no idea. If I had to guess, I'd say after about six months, we should start seeing some serious decay in the group.
 

gaijinkaiju

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That or the general populace will get pissed off enough and refuse to support them in overwhelming numbers or even actively fight them. A union built on hate is a tenuous one at best, and sooner or later, all that aggression with nowhere to go now will backfire on them either way. As to when this will happen, no idea. If I had to guess, I'd say after about six months, we should start seeing some serious decay in the group.
The general populace already doesn't support them yet they took over the entire country in, what, eleven days? I highly doubt you'll see any kind of uprising that isn't promptly put down.
I give it maybe a month, two tops, before the US (and by extension NATO forces) returns. Its called a forever war for a reason.
 

Vendor-Lazarus

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Yeah, even if they were to collapse in on themselves, I think you've got the time-frame and reasons all wrong.
It's as Gaijinkaiju says, They'll be back. I think it's for a contrived reason they've bungled the withdrawal. To make Trump look bad, and to have a reason to declare it a failure, so they'll "reluctantly" have to return to safeguard ...X reason..Women's Rights.. and just accidentally make loads of money off of it. Maybe it's even a starting setup for replacing Biden with Harris later on.
 

Arnox

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The general populace already doesn't support them yet they took over the entire country in, what, eleven days? I highly doubt you'll see any kind of uprising that isn't promptly put down.
Well yeah. From what I can read, the Afghan civilians thought the military would protect them, but they rolled over in an absolutely ABSURD amount of time and the Taliban was able to do a blitzkrieg of sorts as a result. I'm not sure if the civilians are generally armed or not over there, but I doubt it, and that's going to be a huge issue they will have to overcome if they want to start resisting. In the meantime, who exactly do the Taliban have to fight?
 

gaijinkaiju

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Good documentary worth watching

Well yeah. From what I can read, the Afghan civilians thought the military would protect them, but they rolled over in an absolutely ABSURD amount of time and the Taliban was able to do a blitzkrieg of sorts as a result.
Have you seen how incompetent the Afghan National Army was? The core of the issue, imo, is that the US (and NATO) where there for way too long. They should've been in, kill Osama, and out again. But instead they stuck around for "peacekeeping" and did the afghan governments job for them, leading to them being lazy and reliant on foreign forces to do the job for them.

In the meantime, who exactly do the Taliban have to fight?
They don't need someone to fight though, they got what they want. The US gone and the "government" they established crumbling. Now they're free to establish they're emirate/caliphate/whatever. Atleast until Forever War 2: Electric Boogaloo starts and then the cycle repeats again.
 

Arnox

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Good documentary worth watching

Have you seen how incompetent the Afghan National Army was? The core of the issue, imo, is that the US (and NATO) where there for way too long. They should've been in, kill Osama, and out again. But instead they stuck around for "peacekeeping" and did the afghan governments job for them, leading to them being lazy and reliant on foreign forces to do the job for them.

They don't need someone to fight though, they got what they want. The US gone and the "government" they established crumbling. Now they're free to establish they're emirate/caliphate/whatever. Atleast until Forever War 2: Electric Boogaloo starts and then the cycle repeats again.
I don't usually like watching documentaries with an agenda behind them, even if the agenda is correct. They tend to be rather biased in some way. But yes, I totally agree. You're preaching to the choir here. We were there for WAY too long. Part of this is our fault, but that's neither here nor there. I do think the Taliban need someone to fight because that's what the group is built for. If that's not there, they're going to turn to the only others in range. Themselves.

Now, here's another possibility. They may try to pull another 9/11, but I don't know if they're going to be that stupid.
 

gaijinkaiju

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They may try to pull another 9/11, but I don't know if they're going to be that stupid.
How dare you forget the absolute tragedy of 1/6, or whatever date the capitol riot was.
 

gaijinkaiju

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I'm not sure if the civilians are generally armed or not over there, but I doubt it, and that's going to be a huge issue they will have to overcome if they want to start resisting.
Bye bye resistance.

On a related note, I wonder how much military hardware is about to enter the blackmarket. Any idea how much a black hawk goes for?
 

Vendor-Lazarus

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