- Messages
- 6,176
A very common argument against tariffs to restore American jobs and investment is that these tariffs create economic instability, leading to a bear market instead of a bull market. Is the tariff 50%? 150%? 500%? 0%? Who knows, therefore, we shouldn't invest in American manufacturing for the next three years, but this overlooks three important points.
1. If something is built in the US, that obviously means that it gets complete tariff immunity both now and during any point in the future. There's no guesswork and anxious uncertainty anymore. This is the price. No need to ship it overseas. The product is ready to go and is very probably better quality than the Chinese counterpart. It's also (pretty much) immune to any future international war save for, of course, nuclear engagements. Are you seriously telling me that no one is going to care about having that stability?
2. Not investing in ANY manufacturing capacity for the next three years in the hopes that tariffs will be pulled away with the next president is... Well, let's just say most investors and C-suite execs don't seem to have the mental capacity to forecast even one year into the future. They may just bend to the pressure.
3. I think a lot of people grossly underestimate what US manufacturing is capable of. Yes, it's true, we are nowhere near China's manufacturing capacity and efficiency, but to say that the gap is so massive and utterly uncrossable seems incredibly defeatist to me. And even IF it really was that bad, then all the more reason to get started now instead of allowing that gap to grow wider and wider as time goes on. Like it or not, this situation of depending on China for manufacture cannot continue. We have to start putting our big-boy pants on and become more self-sufficient.
Now, whether that needs to be accomplished with tariffs or something else, I don't know. I just know it needs to happen.
1. If something is built in the US, that obviously means that it gets complete tariff immunity both now and during any point in the future. There's no guesswork and anxious uncertainty anymore. This is the price. No need to ship it overseas. The product is ready to go and is very probably better quality than the Chinese counterpart. It's also (pretty much) immune to any future international war save for, of course, nuclear engagements. Are you seriously telling me that no one is going to care about having that stability?
2. Not investing in ANY manufacturing capacity for the next three years in the hopes that tariffs will be pulled away with the next president is... Well, let's just say most investors and C-suite execs don't seem to have the mental capacity to forecast even one year into the future. They may just bend to the pressure.
3. I think a lot of people grossly underestimate what US manufacturing is capable of. Yes, it's true, we are nowhere near China's manufacturing capacity and efficiency, but to say that the gap is so massive and utterly uncrossable seems incredibly defeatist to me. And even IF it really was that bad, then all the more reason to get started now instead of allowing that gap to grow wider and wider as time goes on. Like it or not, this situation of depending on China for manufacture cannot continue. We have to start putting our big-boy pants on and become more self-sufficient.
Now, whether that needs to be accomplished with tariffs or something else, I don't know. I just know it needs to happen.
